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The latest Clarius Skills Index shows that after free-falling for two quarters, for the September quarter 2009, the index is currently viewed as being moderate, at 98.2, seasonally adjusted. At this level, the index is 0.6% lower than the 98.8 recorded in the previous June 2009 quarter, and 4.7% lower than the 103.0 registered at the same time last year.

 

A score of 100 in the Clarius Skills Index indicates equal tension between labour supply and demand. Anything greater than 105 on the skills shortage side of the Index is regarded as extreme shortage. A score of 95 to 98 is moderate. 95 or less is considered low.

 

 

The index is now at its lowest level since 2001 when it dropped to 97.6. However, the latest labour force data indicates that the index should now stabilise then recover in coming months.

 

However, the indications of a stimulus-led recovery across the board appear to be limited to a handful of occupational categories and may be short-term at best in some.

 

The main beneficiaries have been in the building and construction sectors and associated occupation categories where the down turn has slowed the rate of job losses and appears to be bottoming out.

 

Building and engineering professionals dropped 4.7 points from the September quarter last year but slipped only 0.4 compared to last quarter. And Index figures for construction tradespersons dropped 6.4 points from the September quarter last year but moved down only by 0.8 when compared to the June quarter.

 

 

‘The government has always claimed the stimulus packages were specifically targeted,’ said Clarius Group executive manager, Kym Quick.

 

‘And this quarter’s Clarius Skills Index provides a good indication of where it is starting to have some impact. But our feedback is that companies are still cautious.'

 

‘The building and construction industries are not yet seeing a lengthening pipeline of projects becoming available. But there are certainly pockets of activity. In sectors like health, there is increasing demand.’

 

Quick said the Index, the only measure of underlying demand and supply of skilled labour, reported a surplus across 20 skilled occupation categories of approximately 45,000 in the September quarter, up from 37,000 skilled workers in the June quarter.

 

Overall, there were an estimated 122,100 unemployed professionals, associate professionals and tradespeople in the September quarter 2009, compared with an estimated 76,800 vacant skilled positions across these occupation groups.

 

 

The total number of vacant skilled positions dropped by 10,900 between the June and September quarters. The September quarter’s vacant skilled positions were 76,800 down from June’s 87,700.

 

There has also been contractions in the available workforce in some sectors as those seeking work in certain skilled occupations have moved on because of an oversupply of labour in that sector or seasonal changes, including sections of the hospitality industry, which generally sees a contraction in winter months.

 

While the government’s expenditure remains short of matching the decline in private sector construction industry investment over recent quarters, there are indications across construction and building related categories of a slowing in skilled jobs losses and gradual pick-ups in others.

 

 

The demand for construction tradespersons has contracted by around 38,300 over the last two quarters (down from March’s 395,000, June’s 384,000 to September’s 357,000), while the electronics and electrical trade category saw a contraction of 30,700 to 248,000 down from 279,00 in the March quarter and 275,000 in the June quarter.

 

There has been a slow down in the contraction of the mechanical and fabrication engineering tradespeople from a high in the September quarter last year of 117.1 to moderate 98.1 in this September quarter. In people terms, those figures represented falls in labour demand (employment and vacancies) from 147,300 in the September quarter last year to 120,100 in this quarter.

 

At the moment, there is an oversupply of labour in this category of just under 2000 people compared with the June quarter when supply and demand of skilled labour for the category was almost lineball.

 

The building and engineering professionals jobs and vacancies category, meanwhile, has increased by 2000 people over the past quarter from 166,000 to 168,000, after peaking for the year at 193,000 in the March quarter.

 

 

In the health professionals category, there is a shortfall of around 2000 people (where there are 465,000 positions and vacancies, but only 463,000 people to fill them).

 

‘While the medical and science associate professionals, chefs and wood tradespeople all recorded increases in their skills index readings during the most recent quarter, there were differences in the expansion and contraction of those categories,’ Quick said.

 

 

‘Chefs contracted by around 20,000 people working or seeking work in the industry, down from demand of 77,650 in the June quarter to only 67,320 this quarter, which is usually fairly normal for winter months, while demand for people in the medical and science categories increased by just under 1000 to 51,000.’

 

‘The woodworking trades, including lathe operators and furniture assembly, shrank by between 3000 and 4000 to around 35,000.’

 

‘Demand for accounting and auditing jobs rose from 174,500 to 177,800, while in the ICT sector demand for computer professionals rose from 192,000 to 203,000 jobs, however, it is getting closer to parity with an oversupply this quarter of around 500 people.’